ABSTRACT
Background and Aim: We aimed to develop a clinical prediction model for pulmonary thrombosis (PT) diagnosis in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Methods: Non-intensive care unit hospitalized COVID-19 patients who underwent a computed tomography pulmonary angiogram (CTPA) for suspected PT were included in the study. Demographic, clinical, analytical, and radiological variables as potential factors associated with the presence of PT were selected. Multivariable Cox regression analysis to develop a score for estimating the pre-test probability of PT was performed. The score was internally validated by bootstrap analysis. Results: Among the 271 patients who underwent a CTPA, 132 patients (48.7%) had PT. Heart rate >100 bpm (OR = 4.63 [95% CI: 2.30-9.34]; P < 0.001), respiratory rate >22 bpm (OR = 5.21 [95% CI: 2.00-13.54]; P < 0.001), RALE score ≥4 (OR = 3.24 [95% CI: 1.66-6.32]; P < 0.001), C-reactive protein (CRP) >100 mg/L (OR = 2.10 [95% CI: 0.95-4.63]; P = 0.067), and D-dimer >3.000 ng/mL (OR = 6.86 [95% CI: 3.54-13.28]; P < 0.001) at the time of suspected PT were independent predictors of thrombosis. Using these variables, we constructed a nomogram (CRP, Heart rate, D-dimer, RALE score, and respiratory rate [CHEDDAR score]) for estimating the pre-test probability of PT. The score showed a high predictive accuracy (area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve = 0.877; 95% CI: 0.83-0.92). A score lower than 182 points on the nomogram confers a low probability for PT with a negative predictive value of 92%. Conclusions: CHEDDAR score can be used to estimate the pre-test probability of PT in hospitalized COVID-19 patients outside the intensive care unit. Relevance for Patients: Developing a new clinical prediction model for PT diagnosis in COVID-19 may help in the triage of patients, and limit unnecessary exposure to radiation and the risk of nephrotoxicity due to iodinated contrast.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Immune recovery in people living with HIV (PLWHIV) is a residual aspect of antiretroviral treatment (ART) in most patients, but in a non-negligible proportion of them, the CD4+ lymphocytes count, or CD4/CD8 ratio remains suboptimal. METHODS: We performed a model of the immune response after 24 weeks of switching to a 2DR with DTG plus 3TC in a retrospective multicenter cohort of undetectable and experienced patients using significant predictor variables associated with the parameters or situations defined as success and failure. Clinical variables studied were CD4+ and CD8+ lymphocyte count, percentage of CD4, and CD4/CD8 ratio. These parameters were assessed at baseline and 24 weeks after the switch. Based on the evolution of each variable, four categories of immune response and four categories of non-immune response were defined. Immune response was defined as CD4+ count > 500 cells/mm3, %CD4 > 30%, CD8+ count < 1000 cells/mm3 and CD4/CD8 ratio ≥ 0.9. Non-response is just the opposite. RESULTS: In our different models of immunological response, the presence of stage of AIDS (p = 0.035, p = 0.065) and current age over 50 years (p = 0.045) are postulated as statistically significative limiting factors in achieving an improvement in CD4, %CD4, CD8, and CD4/CD8 ratio. Late HIV diagnosis (p = 0.156), without statistical significance, enhanced late the previous variables. In contrast, conditions where patients start with CD4 > 500 cells/mm3 (p = 0.054); CD4 > 30% (p = 0.054, p = 0.084); CD8 < 1000 cells/mm3 (p = 0.018), and CD4/CD8 ≥ 0.9 (p = 0.013, p = 0.09) are detected as stimulating or conducive to DTG plus 3TC treatment success. CONCLUSION: These models represent a proof of concept that could become a valuable tool for clinicians to predict the effects of DTG plus 3TC on immunological responses prior to the switch in undetectable pre-treated PLWHIV with immune dysfunction. The main predictors for immunological failure were late HIV diagnosis, stage of AIDS, and current age over 50 years. In contrast, starting with a normalized immune status was detected as stimulating or conducive to DTG plus 3TC treatment success.